Prediction Watch - 2018

Prediction Watch - 2018

By Dominic Hefferan on Mar 26 2018


As we enter a new year, it's times like these that thoughts naturally turn to what the year holds. Recently, five property experts from around the world got together to make their 2018 predictions, and today we're giving you the fast facts on what you can expect from the year to come.

Expert Prediction
Louis Christopher, SQM Research 4-8% rise
George Tharenou, UBS 0-3% rise
Robert Mellor, BIS Oxford Economics 1-2% rise
Cameron Kusher, CoreLogic 2-3% fall
Steve Keen, Kingston University 5-10% fall


The Bad News

Three of the five experts expect only modest growth at best in the next 12 months, with the remaining two predicting prices to fall as property booms in Sydney and Melbourne come to a close and a crackdown on banks' home loan lending practices by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) begins to have a greater effect.

As Cameron Kusher, head of Australian research for CoreLogic, said "At a national level I think that values will be lower, and that will really be driven by Sydney, the areas surrounding Sydney and even, potentially, Melbourne later in 2018."


The Good News

Fortunately, most of any downward momentum is expected to come from Melbourne and Sydney, with Brisbane remaining relatively unaffected. Both Mr Kusher and Louis Christopher, manager of independent property analysis firm SQM Research, predict Brisbane market growth for 2018, with Mr Christopher predicting between 2-7% growth in the coming year.


The Summary

Overall, there were a lot of different expectations, with these five experts forecasting between an 8% rise and a 10% fall at each extreme. While it can be hard to predict the future, it's important to remember that these are overall national trends, and your local market can be experiencing developments completely separate from the greater market.


If it all gets confusing, talk to us and we can give you a free summary of every sale in the last quarter for any of the 12 suburbs in our area. As your local experts, we have the information you need to make to best decision for your property needs, so get in touch with us today.


References

Janda, M., 2018, Real Estate 'Boom Is Over' as Most Experts Tip Property Price Weakness in 2018,
abc.net.au/news/2017-12-29/boom-is-over-most-experts-expect-property-price-weakness

Shapiro, J., 2017, Apra Targets Living Expenses, Total Debts in Home Lending Crackdown,
afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/apra-targets-living-expenses-total-debts-in-home-lending-crackdown

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